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Tabaqchali, Market Review: Oil and the Iraqi Economy

By Ahmed Tabaqchali, Chief Strategist of AFC Iraq Fund.

Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Market Review: “Oil and the Economy”

The market, as measured by the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index, increased by 4.5%, and 8.8% for the year. Average daily turnover on the Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) declined for the second month in a row and is currently at the lower end of the levels that prevailed over the last twelve months.

On a positive note, the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index has reclaimed the upper-end of the uptrend that it established over the last two years (chart below) – a promising development that is in contrast to that of many markets worldwide.

(Source: Iraq Stock Exchange, Rabee Securities, AFC Research, data as February 28th)

Among the index’s constituents, lower-priced Gulf Commercial Bank (BGUC) was up 20.0% for the month, far ahead of the other nine constituents. The next best performing constituent was Bank of Baghdad (BBOB) up 4.7%, followed by Baghdad Soft Drinks (IBSD) up 4.4%, Asiacell (TASC) up 3.3%, the National Bank of Iraq (BNOI) up 2.6%, and Al-Mansour Bank (BMNS) up 2.0%, while the Commercial Bank of Iraq (BCOI) was flat. Decliners were led by Al-Mansour Pharmaceutical Industries (IMAP) which was down 6.5%, followed by National Chemical and Plastics Industries (INCP) down 2.0%, and Kharkh Tour Amusement City (SKTA) which was down 0.3%.

Excluding BGUC, these modest stock price performances for the month haven’t yet reflected the increased bounty brought by high oil prices taking Iraq’s oil sales to an all-time high for a fifth consecutive month (chart below). The country’s high leverage to oil prices and hence to oil sales will have significant positives for both the economy, and the equity market down the line – as a result of the centrality of the government’s oil fuelled spending to the economy.

(Source: Ministry of Oil, AFC Research, data as of February 28th)

There is a great deal of fear built into oil’s current prices, and as such they are unlikely to be sustainable for too long, yet the changed geopolitical landscape as a consequence of the invasion of Ukraine will have significant consequences for the supply and demand of oil. On the demand side, the limited disruptions brought by the Omicron variant on economic activity worldwide since its emergence has solidified market expectations that oil demand in 2022 will return to pre-COVID-19 levels seen in 2019 – there is no reason, at least for now, to expect meaningful change to these expectations following the Ukraine invasion.

However, the same market expectations that supply will itself, like demand, return to its pre-COVID-19 levels will likely be re-examined in light of the pressures that the OPEC+ group will be under in the new changed world order. Prior to the events leading to the current crisis, OPEC+’s plan was to fully unwind by September 2022 the production cuts agreed to in April 2020. However, over the last few months, the plan was facing difficulties as some members of OPEC+ were struggling to return to pre-COVID-19 production levels.

A situation will likely worsen given the wide scope of sanctions levied upon Russia, which will negatively affect its oil production and the production of many of the “+” members of OPEC+ that are closely aligned to Russia. Consequently, supply will likely be meaningfully tighter than anticipated earlier despite many countries releasing oil held within their strategic reserves, the return of full U.S. shale oil production, and possible production increases by Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the changed geopolitical landscape means the return of high-risk premiums to oil prices for a considerable period into the future.

(Source: U.S. Energy Information Agency, data as of February 8th)

Oil price expectations – a consequence of the changed dynamics of oil’s supply and demand – and what they mean for the Iraqi economy, are meaningfully higher than those articulated here in the “Outlook for 2022” which argued at the time that “oil prices at these levels are positive for the country’s financial position in that they will provide governments, current and upcoming, with the wherewithal to continue with current expansionary economic policies that will also still allow for the accumulation of budget surpluses. Moreover, they will also lead to multi-year positive balances in the country’s current account which in turn will translate into meaningful increases in Iraq’s foreign exchange reserves.”

Iraq’s equity market outlook and attractive risk-reward profile, in the unfolding new world order, is in sharp contrast to that of many markets worldwide. Firstly, the Iraqi equity market is in the process of emerging from a multi-year bear market that saw the Rabee Securities RSISX USD Index at the end of 2020 down by 68% from its 2014 all-time high – unlike many markets worldwide that have had multi-year bull markets.

Secondly, its 8.8% performance year-to-date is in contrast to the sell-offs experienced by other markets in response to the changed world order dynamics.

Finally, the index’s 8.8% increase year-to-date coming on the back of a +21.4% return in 2021, is by the end of the month still 58% below the 2014 high – underscoring the potential catch-up upside for the equity market and its attractive risk-reward profile versus other global markets (chart below).

Normalised returns for the RSISUSD Index vs MSCI World Index, MSCI Emerging Markets Index and MSCI Frontier Markets Index

(Source: Bloomberg, data as of February 28th)

Please click here to download Ahmed Tabaqchali’s full report in pdf format.

Mr Tabaqchali (@AMTabaqchali) is the Chief Strategist of the AFC Iraq Fund, and is an experienced capital markets professional with over 25 years’ experience in US and MENA markets. He is a Visiting Fellow at the LSE Middle East Centre, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Regional and International Studies (IRIS), and a Senior Non-resident Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He is also a board member of Capital Investments, the investment banking arm of Capital Bank in Jordan.

His comments, opinions and analyses are personal views and are intended to be for informational purposes and general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any fund or security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax or investment advice. The information provided in this material is compiled from sources that are believed to be reliable, but no guarantee is made of its correctness, is rendered as at publication date and may change without notice and it is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding Iraq, the region, market or investment.

The post Tabaqchali, Market Review: Oil and the Iraqi Economy first appeared on Iraq Business News.

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Video: Where has Iraq’s Oil Wealth gone?

From Al Jazeera. Any opinions expressed are those of the author(s), and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Decades of plundering: Where has Iraq’s oil wealth gone?

Ranked as the fourth-biggest oil producer in the world, many would assume that Iraq has the financial resources to weather the pandemic.

But that is not the case – its fragile economy is struggling to cope and it may turn to the International Monetary Fund for assistance.

It has already devalued its currency by almost a fifth, enabling it to eke out more dinars for dollars. Ahmed Tabaqchali, the chief investment officer of AFC Iraq Fund, helps explain where all of Iraq’s money goes:

The post Video: Where has Iraq’s Oil Wealth gone? first appeared on Iraq Business News.

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Rosneft in the Kurdish Region: Moscow’s Balancing Act

By Ahmed Tabaqchali. Originally published by Iraq in Context; re-published by Iraq Business News with permission. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Between February 2017 and mid-October, Rosneft signed a number of deals with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) that established for it, and by extension for Russia, a major position as both an investor and stakeholder in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI)’s hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure.

The move was interpreted, especially by the KRG, as implicit support for the KRG in its bid for independence, especially in light of the latest deal signed following the reassertion of Iraq’s federal control over Kirkuk and other disputed territories. While there is an element of truth to this thinking, the deals are part of a wider geopolitical positioning for Russia as a major gas supplier to Europe and as an emerging power in the Middle East.

The deals provide Rosneft, and by extension Russia, effective control of the KRG’s Oil & Gas infrastructure, and a controlling stake in the region’s finances in more ways than one.

Within the oil space it has established this in three ways. The first was by providing USD 1.5bn in financing via forward oil sales payable over 3-5 years. This would be payable in kind from the KRG’s exports, until recently at about 550,000-600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). However, the loss of the Kirkuk fields takes away about 430,000 bbl/d of production or eventually about half of the KRG’s exports.

This leaves the KRG with a tiny revenue stream after payments to International Oil Companies (IOC)’s, from which to make payments on forward oil sales of up USD 3.5 bn including Rosneft’s USD 1.5bn. A complicating factor is the repayment of other KRG debt, estimated at over USD 21bn by end of 2017, which will have to be factored into debt payment sustainability.

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Interview with Ahmed Tabaqchali, CIO of AFC Iraq Fund

Ahead of the Basra Oil, Gas & Infrastructure Conference taking place on the 30-31 October in Beirut, we caught up with one of the speakers, Ahmed Tabaqchali the CIO of AFC Iraq Fund on the importance of Iraq, the economy and what to look forward to at the event.

Q. Why Iraq is such an important market in the Middle East?

A. The size and quality of Iraq’s hydrocarbon wealth would alone make the country one of the most significant markets in the region. As a consequence of over 35 years of conflict, much of Iraq has not seen any meaningful exploration and thus the potential for significant discoveries is exciting. The rebuilding of its hydrocarbon industry since 2003 has a long way to go, and as such there are enormous opportunities for upgrading the sector across the whole spectrum.

Q. What are the positive implications for the economy and for Basra for the new era of reconstructing Iraq?

A. The reconstruction process will have far reaching implications for the overall economy and Basra in particular with the potential that the associated economic activities to contribute to the development of a diversified economy. The short term effect impact on the economy would be to add fuel to the expansionary economic effects produced by the reversal of the negative forces, i.e. escalating costs of war & collapsing oil prices, that crushed the economy over the last 3 years.

Q. While the Iraqi economy is driven by the state, how do you assess Basra province role as Iraq’s economic capital in driving multiple industries?

A. Arguably, the state’s domination of the economy has stifled the development of both the private sector and regional development in the country. Basra can and should play a leading role in reigniting economic growth given its position as the economic powerhouse of the country. Its rich history & traditions coupled with its mineral & human wealth are significant assets that would allow it to assume this leading role.

Q. How do you at Asia Frontier Capital assess Basra’s role?

A. Personally, Basra has a special place in my heart as it is the burial site of my grandmother since the 1940’s when my grandfather was the governor of Basra, and so I have a bias for the province and its people. It’s worth repeating that its  rich history & traditions coupled with its mineral & human wealth give it an outsized role in Iraq’s future.

Q. What is the role of AFC in Iraq in enhancing projects performance and driving growth?

A. The AFC Iraq Fund, as an investor in Iraq’s equity market signifies AFC’s belief in the long-term economic potential of the country. As long-term institutional investors, we bring foreign capital into the country and contribute to the development of the country’s institutional investor sector, which like much of its frontier market peers is underdeveloped. The long-term horizon of Institutional investors allows them to invest counter cyclically especially during financial crisis by acting as shock absorbers which in the process provides the underlying companies with shareholder stability that allows them to rebuild, grow and expand.

Q. What is your main interest at the Conference? And what are you going to discuss at the Basra Oil, Gas & Infrastructure 2017 Conference in Beirut 30-31st of October?

A. The conference provides an opportunity to meet the players and participants in potentially one of the most dynamic drivers of Iraq’s economy through Basra’s industries spanning oil, gas, power, petrochemicals, infrastructure, construction, transport and logistics. I am hoping to discuss the role and challenges of the private sector in the reconstruction process. Specifically, to explore the role that institutional investors can play as shareholders in infrastructure projects both as an additional source of financing and as contributors to long-term stability as anchor investors.

(Source: CWC)