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What Iran’s Revolution meant for Iraq

By Bruce Riedel, Brookings Institution.

The opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

What Iran’s Revolution meant for Iraq

The collapse of the shah’s government in Iran in early 1979 impacted the entire world but no country was more affected than Iraq.

Saddam Hussein’s regime was the shah’s deadly enemy and had hosted the Ayatollah Khomeini in exile for years, but Saddam became the top foreign target of the revolutionaries in Tehran once they took power.

Many countries were caught off balance by the Iranian revolution but none got it as wrong as Iraq. Its response—war—led to decades of conflict which have yet to end.

The full report can be read here.

(Source: Brookings Institution)

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Russia want More Projects with Iraq

By John Lee.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that Moscow is very interested in increasing trade, economic and investment ties with Iraq.

Following a meeting on Wednesday with Iraqi Foreign Minister Mohamed Ali Alhakim, he said:

“In the field of investment, especially in the hydrocarbon sector, there is a very good result. Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, SoyuzNefteGaz are already working, Rosneft is interested in projects in Iraq. The total investment in this industry has already exceeded $ 10 billion.

“We want to promote projects in other areas. Today we talked about electricity, agriculture, industry, transport – all this will be considered in the context of preparations for the next meeting of the Russian-Iraqi Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation.“

He added that about 4 thousand Iraqi citizens are currently studying in universities of the Russian Federation, while dozens of diplomats from Iraq take part in special training courses at the Diplomatic Academy at the Russian Foreign Ministry.

(Source: Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs)

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Jordan moves to Restore Strategic Ties with Iraq

By Osama Al Sharif for Al-Monitor. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Jordan’s King Abdullah’s one-day visit to Baghdad on Jan. 14 was hailed as “historic” by Iraqi President Barham Saleh. It was the first trip to Iraq by the Jordanian monarch in more than a decade, and it came less than a month after the kingdom’s prime minister, Omar Razzaz, paid a visit on Dec. 28 to the Iraqi capital to sign a number of economic agreements.

A royal court statement said the king noted the strong ties between the two countries, affirming that Jordan stands by Iraq as it seeks to safeguard its security and stability, and works to fulfill the aspirations of the Iraqi people toward further prosperity and progress.

It added that the two leaders “stressed the importance of bilateral agreements in the economic, trade, investment, energy, transport and construction sectors.”

Click here to read the full story.

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Oil Ministry Finalises Export Figures for December

By John Lee.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced final oil exports for December of 115,517,974 barrels, giving an average for the month of 3.726 million barrels per day (bpd), a increase from the 3.377 bpd exported in November.

These exports from the oilfields in central and southern Iraq amounted to 112,450,367 barrels, while exports by the North Oil Company amounted to 3,067,607 barrels.

Revenues for the month were $6.234 billion at an average price of $53.962 per barrel.

The oil was loaded by 36 international companies.

November export figures can be found here.

(Source: Ministry of Oil)

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Genel shares Rise on Chevron Iraq Partnership

Shares in Genel Energy were trading up 6 percent on Monday afternoon after the company announced that it has reached agreement to acquire stakes in the Chevron-operated Sarta and Qara Dagh blocks (pictured), in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Genel will acquire 30% equity in the Sarta licence by paying a 50% share of ongoing field development costs until a specific production target is reached, together with a success fee payable on achievement of a production milestone. Chevron will retain a 50% interest in the Sarta licence and the Kurdistan Regional Government will hold the remaining 20%. Genel’s estimate of its total spend up to end-2020 is c.$60 million.

Drilling began on the first appraisal well, Sarta-3, in Q4 2017. The well was successfully completed and tested during the second quarter of 2018. Both that and the Sarta-2 well individually tested at rates of c.7,500 bopd. The first phase of development is expected to see these wells placed on production.

Genel will acquire 40% equity of the Qara Dagh appraisal licence and become the operator through a carry arrangement. Chevron will retain 40% of the equity, with the KRG holding the remaining 20%. The Qara Dagh-2 well is set to be drilled in 2020. The Qara Dagh-1 well, completed in 2011, tested oil in two zones from the Shiranish formation.

Closing is subject to approval from the Kurdistan Regional Government.

Murat Özgül, Chief Executive of Genel, said:

“We are delighted to have been chosen as a partner to Chevron. The agreement provides access to a phased development opportunity with significant growth potential at Sarta, and an exciting appraisal opportunity at Qara Dagh. The additions to our portfolio are an important step in our diversification strategy, offering a further opportunity for near-term production and cash-generation.”

(Sources: Genel Energy, Yahoo!)

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GKP to Increase Production; Shares Rise

Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) closed 4.3 percent higher on Wednesday after the company provided an operational and corporate update.

Operational

  • Production operations, underpinned by strong performance of the Shaikan Jurassic reservoir, continue in line with expectations. Average gross production of 31,563 barrels of oil per day (“bopd”) was achieved in 2018, at the upper end of the 27,000 – 32,000 bopd guidance.
  • The plant debottlenecking programme required to expand gross production capacity to 55,000 bopd from PF-1 and PF-2 remains on schedule for completion towards the end of 2019.
  • GKP has signed an agreement with Independent Oil Tools to use ‘Rig 1’ during the Company’s workover programme to replace tubing on SH-1 and SH-3 wells and install downhole pumps (“ESPs”) on three other existing wells. The rig has been mobilised and is currently performing a workover on the SH-1 well to install larger bore tubing to increase productivity.
  • GKP has also signed an agreement with the rig operator, DQE, to use ‘Rig 40’ for its upcoming drilling campaign, due to start in March 2019, with the first four wells (needed for the 55,000 bopd target) expected to be completed in Q1 2020.
  • Since July 2018, all production from PF-2 has been exported via the Atrush export pipeline which connects to the main Kurdish export pipeline. Additional pumps along with a temporary unloading facility have now been installed at PF-2 which allows the majority of production from PF-1 to be trucked to PF-2 and exported via pipeline. Today, only ca.3,000 bopd are exported by truck via Fishkhabour which lowers HSSE exposure.
  • Further progress has been made, including delivery of all 16″ pipeline to the field, on the installation by KAR Group of the pipeline also connecting PF-1 to the Atrush export pipeline. This remains on schedule to be brought into service mid-2019, at which point the residual trucking of crude oil will be eliminated.
  • GKP and its partner MOL have agreed on a staged investment programme to increase gross production up to 110,000 bopd by 2024. The revised Field Development Plan was submitted for approval to the Ministry of Natural Resources in October 2018. The current expansion to 55,000 bopd is already underway.

Corporate

  • GKP has continued to receive regular oil payments from the Kurdistan Regional Government, with cash receipts of $225 million net to GKP during 2018.
  • Cash balance of $294 million as at 15 January 2019. The Company remains fully funded to complete the expansion to 55,000 bopd.
  • Gross capital expenditure guidance for the total 55,000 bopd project phase remains unchanged at $200 million to $230 million.
  • Of the 2018 approved gross budget of $91 million, ca.$40 million has been transferred to early 2019 which was primarily driven by delays in delivery of drilling and well completion equipment.

Outlook

  • Given the active 2019 investment programme, particularly in new wells and workovers, the Company anticipates improved production levels this year and expects gross average production guidance to be in the range of 32,000 – 38,000 bopd.
  • The above guidance takes account the latest drilling and project schedules, but also the temporary plant shut-downs required in 2019 for the tie-in of new facilities and wells being offline while workovers are taking place.
  • 55,000 bopd production target moved to early 2020 due to delays in the delivery of equipment, affecting the start date of the drilling campaign, originally January, now March 2019.
  • The Company intends to host a Capital Markets Day in the first quarter of 2019. Further details will be announced at a later date.

Commenting, Jón Ferrier, CEO, said:

“Having successfully laid the foundations for our expansion plans in 2018, we are very pleased to have now initiated our new investment programme at Shaikan.

“We continue to make considerable operational headway as we look to safely increase production to 55,000 bopd, in line with our strategy. 2019 is set to be another important year for Gulf Keystone and we look forward to keeping our stakeholders updated on our ongoing progress.”

(Source: GKP)

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Genel Energy posts strong Trading Update

Genel Energy has issued the following trading and operations update in advance of the Company’s full-year 2018 results, which are scheduled for release on 20 March 2019. The information contained herein has not been audited and may be subject to further review.

Murat Özgül, Chief Executive of Genel, said:

“2018 was a very positive year for Genel, which saw us generate material free cash flow and further transform the balance sheet. An expected year-on-year increase in production means we are set to continue this performance in 2019, with low-cost assets forecast to generate over $100 million in free cash flow even if the oil price averages $45/bbl.

“As we generate cash we will continue to invest in the business to maximise the value of our existing portfolio. We are also working hard to bring in new assets that are complementary to our cash generation story. We are focused on building a stronger company with sustainable and material cash flow and multiple growth opportunities from which to create significant shareholder value.“

FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

  • $335 million of cash proceeds were received in 2018 ($263 million in 2017), an increase of 27%, of which $98 million was received in Q4
  • Free cash flow totalled $164 million in 2018 ($99 million in 2017), an increase of 66%, representing a free cash flow yield of 27% on the year-end share price
  • Unrestricted cash balances at 31 December 2018 were $334 million ($162 million at 31 December 2017), with net cash at $37 million ($135 million net debt at 31 December 2017)
  • Capital expenditure for 2018 totalled $95 million, of which $70 million was cost recoverable spend on producing assets

2018 OPERATING PERFORMANCE AND 2019 ACTIVITY OUTLOOK

  • 2018 net production averaged 33,690 bopd, with Q4 averaging 36,920 bopd. Production and sales by asset during 2018 was as follows:

  • Tawke PSC (Genel 25% working interest)
    • Tawke PSC production averaged 113,020 bopd in 2018, with production from Peshkabir contributing 27,660 bopd to this figure
    • Production in Q4 2018 averaged 127,220 bopd, of which Peshkabir contributed 50,130 bopd
    • The Peshkabir-8 well completed in December 2018, and is currently producing just under 10,000 bopd. Results of the Peshkabir-9 well are expected shortly
    • While further production wells are set to be drilled in 2019, Peshkabir activity in 2019 will focus on field management facilities and the utilisation of associated gas to enhance oil recovery at the Tawke field

 

  • Taq Taq PSC (Genel 44% working interest and joint operator)
    • Taq Taq field production averaged 12,350 bopd in 2018
    • Production in Q4 2018 averaged 11,640 bopd
    • Drilling operations on the TT-32 well have now been completed, and test production is underway. The well is currently flowing at a rate of over 3,000 bopd, and still cleaning up, with further zones to be tested ahead of an expected stabilised production rate of c.2,000 bopd
    • The rig has now moved to drill the horizontal sidetrack TT-20z well, which will drill the Shiranish in the western flank of the field with an aim to increasing productivity
    • Three further wells are scheduled to be drilled in 2019, as Genel continues to target the flanks of the field with the aim of delivering a year-on-year production increase

 

  • Bina Bawi and Miran (Genel 100% and operator)
    • Field development plans for both Bina Bawi and Miran oil and gas are under discussion with the KRG, and may entail a phased development approach in order to reduce initial capital expenditure and achieve the earliest date for first gas. An extension to the conditions precedent is expected to be granted shortly
    • Genel is reviewing the value of the Miran PSC carried in the Company accounts, and will update this as part of the year-end results process

 

  • African exploration update
    • Onshore Somaliland, seismic processing has now completed on the SL-10-B/13 block (Genel 75% working interest, operator) and analysis and interpretation is underway. Initial indications confirm the Company view that the block has hydrocarbon potential. Genel continues to develop a prospect inventory and assess next steps ahead of a farm-out process and potentially spudding a well in 2020. On the Odewayne block further seismic processing is being considered in order to complete the Company’s understanding of the prospectivity of the block
    • On the Sidi Moussa block offshore Morocco (Genel 75% working interest, operator), the acquisition of a c.3,500 km2 multi-azimuth broadband 3D seismic survey completed in November. PSTM and PSDM processing will continue through 2019. Genel has no additional work commitments relating to the licence. A decision will be made on whether to drill a well, and the appropriate equity level, once processing has progressed sufficiently

2019 GUIDANCE

  • Genel expects to generate material free cash flow in 2019
    • Genel generates positive free cash flow at and above an oil price of $20/bbl
  • In light of the Company’s balance sheet strength and ongoing material cash generation, management is appraising the most effective model for balanced capital allocation in order to take advantage of growth opportunities, make value accretive additions to the portfolio, and pave the way to returning capital to shareholders at the appropriate time
  • Combined net production from the Tawke and Taq Taq PSCs during 2019 is expected to be close to Q4 2018 levels
  • Capital expenditure net to Genel is forecast to be c.$115 million, with the majority being cost-recoverable spend on current producing assets. Capex includes:
    • Tawke and Taq Taq net to Genel of c.$100 million
    • Bina Bawi and Miran maintenance capex of c.$10 million, with the potential for this figure to be updated should there be positive developments on Bina Bawi commercial discussions
    • African exploration cost of under $5 million, largely comprising processing costs relating to Moroccan seismic
  • Opex: c.$30 million
  • G&A: c.$20 million
  • The Company continues to actively pursue growth and appraise opportunities to make value-accretive additions to the portfolio

(Source: Genel Energy)

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Jordan and Iraq plan to Increase Trade

By John Lee.

King Abdullah II of Jordan arrives in Baghdad today on an official visit to Iraq for talks with President Barham Salih, and Prime Minister Adil Abd Al Mahdi and senior officials, with a view to strengthening bilateral relations and regional development.

According to a report from The Arab Weekly, the two countries are planning a border industrial zone with a possible 50,000 jobs. It would also facilitate exports of tax-exempted Jordanian goods to the Iraqi market.

In recent weeks, the two countries have agreed a series of measures to increase cooperation between the two countries, including a plan to finalize the framework agreement for the Iraqi-Jordanian pipeline which will run from Basra through Haditha to Aqaba in the first quarter of 2019.

They have also agreed to upgrade the al-Karamah – Terbil Border Crossing.

(Sources: Govt of Iraq, The Arab Weekly)

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Increased Oil Production planned for Majnoon

By John Lee.

Oil production at Majnoon oilfield is reportedly planned to increase from 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) currently to 290,000 bpd by the end of 2019 and 450,000 bpd by the end of 2021.

State-owned Basra Oil Company (BOC) took over the field from Shell and Petronas at the end of June 2018, with operations and maintenance contracted to Chinese company Anton Oilfield Services Group (Antonoil) and the US company KBR.

More here.

(Source: Reuters)

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US Trying to get More out of Relationship with Iraq

From The Economist.

America is trying to get more out of its relationship with Iraq

US President Donald Trump thinks America is being ripped off. “We have spent $7trn—trillion with a T—$7trn in the Middle East,” he told a crowd last year, exaggerating slightly. “You know what we have for it? Nothing. Nothing.”

To right this perceived wrong, Mr Trump has long favoured seizing Iraq’s oil. But after he hinted at the idea with the Iraqi prime minister (who demurred), his aides admonished him. “We can’t do this and you shouldn’t talk about it,” said H.R. McMaster, the national security adviser at the time, according to reports. Still, Mr Trump may be getting what he wants from Iraq in other ways.

When America reimposed sanctions on Iran last year it gave some countries extra time to stop buying Iranian oil before they would lose access to the American market. Most were given 90-day exemptions. In November Iraq, which shares a long border with Iran, was given half that time to cut off electricity and gas imports.

As it negotiated for extensions, American companies made a push for Iraqi contracts. In December, Rick Perry, the energy secretary, led America’s largest trade delegation to Iraq in over a decade. “It was a quid pro quo,” says an oilman. “You give us priority and we’ll give you an exemption.”

Read the full article here (subscription needed).