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Assessing the Impact of Shifting Iran-KRG Relations

By Bijan Khajehpour, for Al-Monitor. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Iran and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq have historically been on good terms. During the Saddam Hussein years, Iran was one of the main countries to host Kurdish leaders. In the post-Saddam era, Tehran and Erbil have enjoyed good neighborly relations.

This relationship manifested itself in Iranian forces coming to the rescue of the Kurdish regions in their fight against the Islamic State (IS) in the summer of 2014. However, the recent independence referendum in the KRG has angered Tehran, and it is clear that the Kurdish moves will impact on both bilateral ties and wider regional alignments.

One important aspect to consider when assessing the fallout between Iran and the KRG following the independence vote is the economic dimension of their relationship in the geostrategic context of Iranian concerns.

Iran and the KRG have a multilayered relationship; most importantly, it is not all driven by the government. On the one hand, there are various trade links between the two sides, starting from very active border markets up to cross-border trade and investment.

There are five border markets between Iran and Iraqi Kurdistan. Prior to the recent events, there were plans to expand such entities to create jobs and also shift the unofficial trade toward official channels. In fact, the KRG is an important market for Iranian exporters. The trade volume between the two sides amounted to $8 billion in 2014, which made Iran the KRG’s second-largest trading partner, after Turkey.

In recent years, Iranian exports to the Kurdistan Region have dropped due to the conflict against IS. Yet, according to Kurdish sources, the trade volume between Iran and the KRG stood at $4 billion in 2016. This means that approximately 40% of the Iran-Iraq trade goes through the KRG.

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Baghdad warns Erbil not to Shut Down Kirkuk Oil

By John Lee.

Iraq is reportedly considering using security forces to prevent Kurdistan from blocking oil output from Kirkuk.

A spokesman for the North Oil Company (NOC) told Reuters that Kurdish officials indicated that they would shut down production at the Kirkuk oilfield, ostensibly for security reasons, but as a means of putting pressure on Baghdad.

Kirkuk produces around 200,000 barrels per day, out of total Kurdish production of over 600,000 bpd.

More from Reuters here.

(Source: Reuters)

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Federal Forces Advance on Kirkuk City

Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Counterterrorism Services (CTS), Federal Police (FP), and Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) launched a combined offensive with intent to seize the K1 military base, Kirkuk airport, and Kirkuk’s oilfields at around 0200hrs (local) on October 16.

The offensive followed two days of failed negotiations after the government of Iraq demanded Kurdish forces withdraw from the disputed areas around Kirkuk and cede control to Iraqi federal forces.

Crisis talks on October 15 failed to resolve the standoff as Kurdish leaders refused Iraqi government demands to reject the referendum result.

Clashes were subsequently reported to have broken out between Iraqi and Kurdish forces south of the city of Kirkuk.

Iraqi state media said that federal troops had entered disputed territories occupied by the Kurds, saying they had taken control of ‘vast areas’ without opposition from the Kurdish Peshmerga.

Kurdish officials, however, denied that the Iraqi forces had been able to get close to Kirkuk city and said that the oil fields west of the city were still under Kurdish control.

The Kurdistan Region Security Council (KRSC) said in a statement that federal forces were advancing along two routes along the Taza-Kirkuk intersection and Maryam Bag Bridge, both South of Kirkuk.

Separate reports claimed artillery fire could be heard to the south of Kirkuk city in the early hours.  An initial statement by the US state department said it was ‘very concerned’ about reports of a confrontation and was ‘monitoring the situation in Kirkuk closely’.

Oil prices reported to have jumped early on October 16 amid reports of the clashes in Kirkuk.

(Source: GardaWorld)

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Iraq to send Gas to Kuwait for Gulf War Compensation

By John Lee.

Kuwait’s Oil Minister, Essam Al-Marzouq, has said his government has agreed to receive natural gas from Iraq in part payment of it Gulf War reparations.

According to a report from BasNews, Iraq will initially send 50 million cubic meters of natural gas (per day?), later increasing to 200 million cubic meters; KUNA puts the figures at 50 million cubic feet (per day?), later increasing to 200 million cubic feet.

The Minister said the two sides are currently discussing the price details.

In November 2015, Kuwait postponed the final instalment of reparations — worth $4.6 billion — until 2017, following a requested by Iraq, to help alleviate the cash crisis in Baghdad caused by lower oil prices and war with the Islamic State group (IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh).

(Sources: BasNews, KUNA)

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Putin boxed in by Iran, Turkey on Iraqi Kurdish referendum

From Al Monitor. Any opinions here are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin had been banking on Iraqi Kurdistan Region President Massoud Barzani.

Over the past year, Russia has invested over $4 billion in the Kurdistan Region’s energy sector, overtaking the United States as the largest investor. By making such a commitment to northern Iraq, Putin was likely counting on both an eventual energy windfall and another card to play as a regional broker at the expense of the United States.

He could count on good, or at least working, relationships with Damascus, Tehran, Ankara, to some extent Baghdad and, with the massive oil and gas venture, Erbil.

What the Russian president had not banked on was that Barzani would go ahead with the independence referendum on Sept. 25 against widespread international and regional opposition. The Kremlin, of course, could not support ethnic separatism, and was probably hoping for a last-minute deal with Baghdad to stave off the vote.

As the prospects of a postponement collapsed, Barzani likely saw Russia’s investment as a hedge against the nearly unified international opposition to its referendum on independence.

Putin, of course, kept up appearances of being in control, but there was no denying the unusual nature of his visit to Ankara on Sept. 28 for consultations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, just three days after the referendum vote.

Erdogan’s position was predictable and blustery, including when he said, “No one has a right to throw our region into the fire,” as Yekaterina Chulkovskaya reports. But Putin sought to dial it down, and instead referred to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement, which included the phrase “Moscow respects the national aspirations of the Kurds” and the hope for a “constructive and respectful dialogue, with a view to devising a mutually acceptable formula of coexistence within a single Iraqi state,” as reported by Jasper Mortimer.

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Iraq seeks to collect KRG’s Oil Revenues

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has hinted that his government wants to take control of revenue generated from Kurdish oil exports.

The measure is the latest of a set of actions taken by Baghdad against the Kurdistan Region for carrying out last week’s referendum that saw a 92-percent vote for independence, the first of which saw a ban in international flights to and from the Kurdish region.

Abadi said in a tweet that his government wanted to pay monthly salaries of KRG employees with money from Kurdish oil sales.  “Federal government control of oil revenues is in order to pay KR (Kurdistan Region) employee salaries in full and so that money will not go to the corrupt,” Abadi tweeted.

The Kurdistan Region has described the Iraqi-imposed flight ban, and other measures as “collective punishment,” that, among others, affect the wounded Kurdish Peshmerga who need medical treatment abroad, and Yezidi survivors of IS atrocities.

Amanj Rahim, the secretary of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), told the Kurdish parliament on September 30 that the oil export through Turkey’s Ceyhan pipeline was going ahead as normal.

Separately, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi reassured Kurdish citizens they will remain secure even as the government escalates its measure against their region’s government over the recent referendum on independence.

“You are citizens of the first degree, we will not allow any harm to you and we will share our loaf of bread together,” Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said, addressing Kurds via twitter on September 30. “To our people in the Kurdistan region: We defend our Kurdish citizens as we defend all Iraqis and will not allow any attack on them,” Abadi added.

(Source: GardaWorld)

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Post-Referendum Threats And Demands

This article was originally published by Niqash. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Iraqi Kurdish Politicians Talk About Post-Referendum Threats And Demands

While many uncertainties remain about Iraqi Kurdistan’s referendum on independence, there is one thing that seems clear to the people on the streets: On the day, the semi-autonomous region felt united in a way that it has not been for a long time.

Part of the reason Iraqi Kurdistan has remained an oasis of relative calm and security, while the rest of Iraq fell apart during the recent security crisis caused by the extremist group known as the Islamic State and earlier, is that the Kurdish people have always considered their ethnicity more important than the religious sect they belong to.

Ethnicity has trumped religion in their case and, despite infighting, has tended to unite locals in this area, with the long-term goal being to form their own nation.

In many other situations recently, the Kurdish have been divided – often between the two zones that basically make up the semi-autonomous northern region, which are run by the two major political parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party, or KDP, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK.

Up until the very last minute some of the region’s political parties remained opposed to the referendum. The KDP, the PUK and the Kurdistan Islamic Union had supported the referendum while the Change movement, also known as Goran, and the Islamic Group of Kurdistan wanted it postponed.

Just one day before the referendum though, when it became clear it was going ahead, the Islamic Group of Kurdistan relented and senior members said they would be voting “yes” in the poll.

Even the Change movement, a long-time opposition group in the region that formed on an anti-corruption platform, told members to follow their own consciences. Then the movement also told members they should vote, and that they should vote “yes”.

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Kirkuk’s Kurdish Governor: If Baghdad Blockades Us, ‘We Will Manage’

This article was originally published by Niqash. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Kirkuk’s Kurdish Governor: If Baghdad Blockades Us, ‘We Will Manage’

In an interview, the controversial governor of Kirkuk, Najmuddin Karim, talks about Baghdad’s attempts to fire him, military tensions and what happens if Baghdad stops sending money.

On September 14, the Iraqi parliament voted to dismiss the governor of Kirkuk from his post. The decision came after the governor, Najmuddin Karim, said that the Kirkuk area would also take part in the Kurdish referendum on independence held this week, on Monday.

The Kurdish minority in Iraq want their region to secede from the rest of Iraq and to begin to start a new nation; they already have their own government, military, and borders.

The decision on Karim’s position was made in the Iraqi parliament even though Kurdish MPs boycotted the vote. Karim rejected the dismissal as did the political party he belongs to, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, or PUK, and the Iraqi Kurdish government, which controls the semi-autonomous northern region.

The Kirkuk provincial council also supported the governor. However Arab and Turkmen members of the council who represent a significant proportion of Kirkuk’s population boycotted the session.

Kirkuk is one of Iraq’s most controversial “disputed areas” – that is, an area that the Iraqi government says belongs to Iraq but which the Kurdish believe should be part of their region. Although the Iraqi Kurdish military control the district, the population includes significant numbers of Arabs and Turkmen too, and this is why the city is often referred to as a potential flashpoint for ethnic conflict.

Karim spoke to NIQASH about the Kurdish referendum on independence as well as his dismissal and its ramifications for his authority in Kirkuk in the future.

NIQASH: There were a number of different options presented to the Kurdish leadership along with requests to postpone the referendum, but none of them seemed to be acceptable. Why?

Najmuddin Karim: The alternative proposals were not concrete. When the Iraqi prime minister spoke about problems, he was talking about amending the Constitution, which isn’t possible. We would only have agreed to postpone the referendum on condition that a date for Kurdish independence was set. There is no doubt that Kirkuk has a Kurdish identity and that its fate is entwined with that of the Kurdish region.

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Turkey Threatens to Invade Iraq, Cut Off Oil Pipeline

By John Lee.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (pictured) has threatened to invade Iraq, and said he could cut off the oil export pipeline from Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan, following the vote supporting independence in Iraqi Kurdistan.

“We have the tap,” he said. “It is done once, we close the tap.”

The pipeline typically carries between 500,000 and 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day.

In a strongly-worded speech, Erdoğan said that fighting the Iraqi Kurdish bid for independence was “a matter of survival“.

His Prime Minister, Binali Yildirim, added that Ankara could take punitive measures involving borders and air space against the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

Shares in Genel Energy fell 7 percent in early trading on Tuesday, but had recovered by lunchtime; Gulf Keystone Petroleum (GKP) was down 2 percent, while Norway’s DNO was 5 percent higher.

(Sources: The Independent, Alliance News, Reuters, Yahoo!)