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Bina Bawi and Miran West gas resource update

Genel Energy has announced that RPS Energy Consultants, as part of its work on the updated competent person’s reports (‘CPRs’) for the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields (Genel 100% and operator), has finalised its evaluation of the contingent gas resources at both assets:

  • The RPS evaluation confirms a significant upgrade to the combined 2C gross (100% working interest (‘WI’)) raw gas resource estimate for the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields:
    • The RPS assessment of the combined gross 2C raw gas resource for both fields now stands at 14,792 Bscf, a figure which excludes associated condensate volumes attributable to the upstream partners
    • The RPS assessment of the combined gross 2C condensate volumes potentially recovered from raw gas production at both fields totals 137 MMstb
    • As at end-2016 Genel’s reported 2C resources included net raw gas resources from Miran and Bina Bawi totalling 1,421 MMboe1, which related to Genel’s respective 80% and 75% interests in the Bina Bawi and Miran PSCs at that time
    • In February 2017 the Company increased its interest in both PSCs to 100%, resulting in a combined pro-forma end-2016 Genel 2C resource of 1,815 MMboe (10,530 Bscf2)
    • The 2018 RPS estimates of combined 2C resources from both fields have increased c.40% compared to the pro-forma end-2016 2C resource
  • The revised Bina Bawi 1C gross raw gas resource estimate is more than 50% higher than the gas volume agreed to for the field under the Gas Lifting Agreement (‘GLA’). The revised Miran West 1C gross raw gas resource estimate is in line with the volume agreed to for the field in the GLA

A comparison of the revised 2C gross contingent resource numbers for both fields and the Company’s end-2016 number, which was based on the 2013 RPS reports plus the addition of the Company’s assessment of non-hydrocarbon gases, is summarised in the following table. Further detail is provided in an appendix to this announcement.

Gross (100% WI) 2C Contingent Resources Raw gas (Bscf)

Previous

Revised

change

Bina Bawi

6,472

8,230

27%

Miran West

3,688

6,562

78%

RPS’s updated analysis of the raw gas resources on both fields has benefitted from updated reservoir simulation modelling combined with analogue analysis jointly created and developed by the Company and Baker Hughes since the original reports were produced. As a consequence, the recovery factors for the gas reservoirs in both fields have, in most resource categories, been increased to reflect a better understanding of potential reservoir performance. Further appraisal activity, which is currently under consideration, could help refine reservoir performance and these recovery factor estimates.

Volumes agreed under the GLAs total 2,800 Bscf from Bina Bawi, and 2,000 Bscf from Miran West over a 12 year period, consisting of a two year build-up period and 10 year plateau period. The revised 2C and 3C raw gas resources for both fields significantly exceed these volumes. Following the completion of the upstream field development plans (‘FDPs’), sufficient progress on the midstream facilities and sales gas export route, and subsequent final investment decision, the Company expects that a percentage of the contingent raw gas resources will be converted to reserves, dependent on the volumes set to be produced under the FDPs.

 

The upstream FDPs for the gas and oil fields in the Bina Bawi and Miran PSCs, which are being carried out by Baker Hughes, are expected to be completed shortly.

RPS is continuing its evaluation of the oil bearing reservoirs at both fields, the results of which will be announced once finalised.

Appendix

Summary of Contingent Resources – Development unclarified (Gross 100% working interest basis) attributable to the Bina Bawi and Miran West fields as of 31 December 2017

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

Gross (100% WI) Contingent Resources

BINA BAWI

Raw gas (Bscf)

Condensate (MMstb)

MIRAN WEST

Raw gas (Bscf)

Condensate (MMstb)

1C

4,651

34

1C

1,967

18

2C

8,230

62

2C

6,562

75

3C

13,036

99

3C

18,429

233

1 Genel figure based on the 2013 RPS reports plus the addition of the Company’s assessment of non-hydrocarbon gases

2 Based on a conversion factor of 5.8 MMscf/bbl

(Source: Genel Energy)

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Rosneft in the Kurdish Region: Moscow’s Balancing Act

By Ahmed Tabaqchali. Originally published by Iraq in Context; re-published by Iraq Business News with permission. Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

Between February 2017 and mid-October, Rosneft signed a number of deals with the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) that established for it, and by extension for Russia, a major position as both an investor and stakeholder in the Kurdish Region of Iraq (KRI)’s hydrocarbon resources and infrastructure.

The move was interpreted, especially by the KRG, as implicit support for the KRG in its bid for independence, especially in light of the latest deal signed following the reassertion of Iraq’s federal control over Kirkuk and other disputed territories. While there is an element of truth to this thinking, the deals are part of a wider geopolitical positioning for Russia as a major gas supplier to Europe and as an emerging power in the Middle East.

The deals provide Rosneft, and by extension Russia, effective control of the KRG’s Oil & Gas infrastructure, and a controlling stake in the region’s finances in more ways than one.

Within the oil space it has established this in three ways. The first was by providing USD 1.5bn in financing via forward oil sales payable over 3-5 years. This would be payable in kind from the KRG’s exports, until recently at about 550,000-600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d). However, the loss of the Kirkuk fields takes away about 430,000 bbl/d of production or eventually about half of the KRG’s exports.

This leaves the KRG with a tiny revenue stream after payments to International Oil Companies (IOC)’s, from which to make payments on forward oil sales of up USD 3.5 bn including Rosneft’s USD 1.5bn. A complicating factor is the repayment of other KRG debt, estimated at over USD 21bn by end of 2017, which will have to be factored into debt payment sustainability.