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Iraqi Refineries: Continued Misalignment amid Investment Illusion

By Ahmed Mousa Jiyad.

Any opinions expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Iraq Business News.

The Refining Industry – Continued Misalignment amid Investment Illusion

More than fifteen years ago a new refinery-specific law was promulgated and then the Ministry of Oil-MoO paid millions of dollars for commissioned international consulting firms to undertake Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) and feasibility studies for a number of new refineries configured to produce petroleum derivatives in compliance with Euro 4/5 standard.

Many tacit objectives stood behind the move: modernize the refining sector to address initially domestic supply-demand misalignment (import substitution) and then export the surplus (export promotion).

All that to introduce a vertical structural diversification along the value-chain of petroleum (desirable structural change) and the new refineries should, mostly, executed through private investment, national or foreign (privatizing the refining industry).

When the FEED and feasibility studies were done, MoO organized promotional events to attract private investors for these new modern refineries and throughout the years many of the refineries went for repeated offering.

At end 2020, none of those refineries materializes despite of the many and high valued incentives and exemptions offered by the related investment laws.  Surprisingly, the Ministry keeps déjà vu; reoffering and offering even more other new refineries for investment without any FEED or feasibility studies.

Recently, I published two-part essay written in Arabic, circulated widely and posted on many websites; the essay undertakes, in part one, comparative Gap Analysis, uses formal data, adheres to evidence-based approach and presents six facts (with Infographic) featuring the reality of the refining sector.

In part two, the essay argues that lack of planning, mismanagement, wrong policy orientation captured by private investment illusion and, possible, formidable “pressure interests” had contributed to this very serious failure of Iraq’ oil policy that keeps costing the country dearly, annually. The essay presents some suggestions to remedy the situation.

This article is premised on the findings of the said essay; it also demonstrates that refinery gap manifests chronic local production-demand misalignment as outcome of the technological configuration of the outdated refineries. It calls for careful important distinction between two types of refinery gap analysis: aggregate and product-specific to avoid misleading interpretation and wrong policy recommendations.

The article argues further that private investment illusion-PII causes the country dearly, through dual-capturing effects, due to delay in resolving refinery gap. All charts are based on formal monthly data retrieved from different credible sources and compiled tabulated and produced by this author.

Click here to download the full report in pdf format.

Mr Jiyad is an independent development consultant, scholar and Associate with the former Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES), London. He was formerly a senior economist with the Iraq National Oil Company and Iraq’s Ministry of Oil, Chief Expert for the Council of Ministers, Director at the Ministry of Trade, and International Specialist with UN organizations in Uganda, Sudan and Jordan. He is now based in Norway (Email: mou-jiya(at)online.no, Skype ID: Ahmed Mousa Jiyad). Read more of Mr Jiyad’s biography here.

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Khor Mor Gas Plant reaches Record Production

Dana Gas has announced the production of sales gas from Pearl Petroleum‘s Khor Mor Gas Plant in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) reached a new record level of 430MMscf/d on 15 December 2020.

Fourth quarter’s average gas production as of 15 December 2020 is 400MMscf/d, an 8% increase on Q4 2019’s average production of 370MMscf/d.

Pearl Petroleum has also restarted expansion plans in the KRI on the 15 December. This follows the suspension of work in March 2020 due to Covid-19 restrictions. All parties working on the project are fully committed to executing the expansion project as quickly and as safely as possible.

The Company expects to complete the first 250 MMscf/d gas processing train in Q1 2023 and is also examining ways to reduce the schedule further.

In line with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) commitment to review the outstanding December 2019 to February 2020 invoices totalling $30 million, Dana Gas notes Pearl Petroleum’s confirmation of receipt of a payment plan proposal from the KRG to pay down past receivables during 2021 as long as Brent remains above $50/bbl.

Pearl Petroleum continues to engage constructively with the KRG on this matter to ensure timely payment. The KRG has maintained regular monthly payments since March 2020.

Dr Patrick Allman-Ward, CEO of Dana Gas, commented:

“Our joint operations at Pearl Petroleum continue to set new records with production output whilst maintaining an excellent HSSE track record, validating our long-term strategy to concentrate on further developing our world-class fields in the KRI. We are getting tremendous support from the KRG, which has given us the green-light to restart the civil engineering works under strict health protocols and controls.

“This clears a major hurdle and puts us on a path for first gas from the new train in Q1 2023. I am also pleased to provide an update on our Q4 average gas production, which is 8% higher at 400MMscf/d than in the same period last year.

“In addition, our commitment and contribution to the people of the KRI remains as strong as ever. Our partnership is now in its 12th year. 2020 has been very challenging due to the restrictions imposed by the global pandemic but the team has worked tirelessly to keep our operations ongoing throughout the year, adhering to strict health and safety protocol to ensure the continuous flow of gas to power the KRI’s electricity needs.”

(Source: Dana Gas)

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Iraq Finalises Oil Exports for November

By John Lee.

Iraq’s Ministry of Oil has announced initial oil exports for November of 81,262,376 barrels, giving an average for the month of 2.709 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the 2.876 million bpd exported in October.

These exports from the oilfields in central and southern Iraq amounted to approximately 78,190,444 barrels, while exports from Kirkuk amounted to 2,819,169 barrels. Exports to Jordan were 252,763 barrels.

Revenues for the month were $3.404 billion at an average price of $41.886 per barrel.

October‘s export figures can be found here.

(Source: Ministry of Oil)

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Weir to Deliver OPITO-Accredited Quals in Iraq

Weir Oil and Gas Approved to Deliver OPITO – Accredited Qualifications in Iraq

Weir Oil & Gas has successfully achieved accreditation from OPITO, the global skills organization for the energy industry, to provide occupational training qualifications from the Weir Oil & Gas Centre of Manufacturing and Engineering Excellence in Southern Iraq.

Weir Oil & Gas is the first training provider in Iraq to receive approval to deliver OPITO-accredited SCQF Level 4 and 5 occupational training qualifications in Basic Maintenance Practices and Maintenance Practices for Instrument, Control, and Mechanical Operations. The local delivery of these training programs will help ensure the availability of an in-country, technically skilled, knowledgeable and safety-conscious workforce.

Over the past three years, Weir Oil & Gas has delivered more than 15,000 combined internal and external training hours, mostly to Iraqi personnel, encompassing classroom-based learning and on-the-job training.

With a constant presence in Iraq since 2014, Weir Oil & Gas has increased its local content through skills development and the structured training of local nationals, focusing on oil and gas services professionals.

The collaboration with OPITO aligns with Weir Oil & Gas’ vision to become a leading provider of oil and gas industry training and skills development in the Middle East, through enhancing the delivery of training to local nationals, and supporting skills development projects in Iraq and Oman for a portfolio of companies that includes major global oil companies.

Ronan Le Gloahec, President of Weir Oil & Gas Eastern Hemisphere, said, “Our partnership with OPITO will allow us to provide unparalleled local content and training for oil and gas personnel in Iraq, creating a solid and necessary foundation for companies operating in the region to flourish.”

Richard Roberts, Regional Vice-President, MEA of OPITO, said, “Iraq’s success as an oil and gas producer will, in part, be reliant on its ability to build a strong local talent pool through ensuring the availability of vocational technical skills in-country that are commensurate with international benchmarks. Our collaboration with Weir Oil & Gas is an important step forward in ensuring the delivery of accredited training programs in Iraq and the Middle East and will help safeguard the continued development of a competent energy sector workforce.”

(Source: Weir)

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GKP Shares Rally following Update

By John Lee.

Shares in Gulf Keystone Petroleum, have rallied more than 20 percent after the company issued an operational and corporate update on Tuesday:

Jón Ferrier, Gulf Keystone’s Chief Executive Officer, said:

“We have made significant operational strides in recent months, ensuring we remain on-track to achieve our revised targets for the year. I am pleased to update stakeholders on further success in executing the previously reported, low-cost, high-impact investments that have so far increased gross production to 42,000 bopd, in excess of the initially targeted increase of 5,000 bopd.

“The Shaikan Field recently achieved an important milestone of cumulative production of 80 million stock tank barrels. This is a clear testament to not only the quality of the asset, from which there remains significant untapped potential, but also the professionalism and dedication of the team. We look forward to updating the market on further progress early in 2021.“

Operational

  • Following on from the successful work over of the SH-12 well, the Company has progressed the previously announced low-cost, high-impact investments to further increase field production.
  • The SH-9 well, on which activity was suspended in March 2020 due to COVID-19, has now been successfully tied-in to PF-1 and is on production. PF-1 is now operating at its current maximum processing capacity of c.27,500 bopd. Debottlenecking activities at PF-1 remain on-track to further increase production capacity to over 30,000 bopd during Q1 2021.
  • Gross Shaikan production is currently at c.42,000 bopd, c.20% above the November 2020 average rate.
  • Average gross production for the year is expected to be at, or slightly above, 36,000 bopd, the top end of the guidance range.

Financial

  • The Company remains on track to achieve targeted G&A and Opex savings of at least 20% compared to 2019 and 30% on a run-rate basis.
  • Net capex for 2020 is expected to be at or slightly exceed the top end of the guidance range of $48 million, following the $3 million investment in high-impact projects.
  • The Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) has maintained regular payments for eight months, including the recent October receipt.
  • The Company has extended its hedging programme, establishing a H1 2021 floor price of $35/bbl on c.60% of production, based on current production levels.
  • As at 14 December 2020, the Company had a cash balance of $142 million.

Outlook

  • With completion of the debottlenecking of PF-1, GKP is expected to deliver a further increase in production in Q1 2021.
  • In line with the KRG’s commitment to review the outstanding November 2019 to February 2020 invoices totalling $73.3m (net) when oil prices reached $50/bbl, we are pleased to confirm receipt of a proposal to repay the arrears. We look forward to further engaging with the KRG on this matter and will provide an update in due course.
  • GKP is well positioned to restart its drilling programme to achieve 55,000 bopd when circumstances permit.
  • The Company remains committed to maintaining its strong financial position and aims to return to a balance of production growth and shareholder distributions, as conditions continue to improve.
  • The search process to identify a successor for CEO, Jón Ferrier, is ongoing.

AGM Update

In accordance with the 2018 UK Corporate Governance Code, the Company can confirm that following the Annual General Meeting held on 19 June 2020, where three of the proposed Resolutions did not attain the support of 80% of the votes, members of the Board and executive management team have consulted with several of the Company’s large shareholders. Mr Garrett Soden has been reappointed to the Board of GKP as a Non-Independent Non-Executive Director representing funds managed by Lansdowne Partners Austria, GKP’s largest shareholder. The Company continues to actively engage with its shareholders.

(Source: GKP)

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GE Synchronizes Gas Turbines at Zubair Power Plant

By John Lee.

GE Gas Power has said it has “marked a major milestone” by synchronizing two GT13E2 gas turbines to the national grid at the Zubair Permanent Power Generation Plant.

The facility is owned by the Basra Oil Company (BOC) and located at the Zubair oil field, about 20 kilometers from the city of Basra.

ENI Iraq B.V. is responsible for developing the oil field and had awarded a contract to GE for the engineering, procurement, installation and commissioning of the power plant.

Two other GT13E2 units at the site had previously been synchronized to the grid in summer 2020. The new additions have taken the total generation capacity of the site up to 700 megawatts (MW).

Joseph Anis, President & CEO of GE Gas Power in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia, said:

“With Iraq’s population growing at over 2 percent per year, the demand for reliable, affordable electricity continues to increase. Every megawatt added to the grid can make a significant impact to the quality of life of the Iraqi people. 

“GE is honored to work together with ENI to support the country’s socioeconomic development by delivering much-needed electricity to power growth and prosperity for present and future generations.“

(Source: GE)

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Jordan Finds Gas Field near Iraqi Border

By John Lee.

Jordan has found new reserves of natural gas at its Risha field, close to its border with Iraq.

Hala Zawati, the Jordanian Energy Minister, said:

“… drilling operations at Well 53 in the Risha field have shown promising results, while exploration and drilling operations continue at wells 50, 51 and 52.”

(Source: Jordanian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources)

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KRG to Resume Override Payments to Genel

By John Lee.

Genel Energy has received notice from the Kurdistan Regional Government (‘KRG’) that override payments, whereby Genel receives 4.5% of monthly Tawke gross field revenues, will resume with the January 2021 invoice, to be paid in February 2021. Assuming the prevailing oil price, this translates into over $5 million of additional cash proceeds on a monthly basis.

This is consistent with the communication received from the KRG as announced on 17 April, which stated that the override payments would be suspended for at least nine months, and also that in a scenario where the oil price recovers to c.$50/bbl, a review of the situation would take place immediately in respect of the outstanding receivable.

In line with this communication, the KRG has now also submitted a reconciliation model for repayment of the receivable relating to amounts owed for invoices for oil sales from November 2019 to February 2020 and the suspended override from March to December 2020. We will work through this submission and update the market when appropriate, as further discussions with the KRG take place.

(Source: Genel Energy)

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China “Set to Bail Out Iraq” with Oil Deal

By John Lee.

Iraq is reportedly poised to sign a multibillion-dollar contract with China’s ZhenHua Oil, in what Bloomberg describes as a bailout from Beijing.

Under the deal, Iraq’s cash-strapped government which will receive money upfront in exchange for long-term oil supplies.

Click here to read the full article.

(Source: Bloomberg)

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